Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted initiative to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.